Climate Change Impacts on the Blue Economy in Morocco.
Hasegawa, K. & Lehr, U. (2024): Climate Change Impacts on the Blue Economy in Morocco. Prospects for Jobs in Coastal Tourism. World Bank, Maghreb Technical Note, Number 12, Washington, D.C.Abstract
The government of Morocco is committed to unleashing the potential of its blue economy. The New Development Model underscores the importance of harnessing the potential of Morocco’s rich marine and coastal resources in the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Coastal areas are home to 81 percent of the country’s industry, contribute 59 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and provide 52 percent of jobs. Boosting the blue economy means enhancing the productivity of the existing blue sectors, such as coastal tourism and fisheries, as well as investing in new sectors, such as aquaculture and marine renewable energies, while sustainably managing marine and coastal resources.
Coastal tourism is a key economic driver in Morocco. In 2019, the tourism sector made a significant contribution of seven percent to the country’s GDP, and was a major source of foreign currency, accounting for 42 percent of service exports. International arrivals reached 13,109,000 and international tourism receipts reached US$ 9.95 billion in 2019. Transport made up around 25 percent of total spending. The importance of tourism as an employer cannot be overstated. In 2019, it provided 565,000 direct jobs, of which 300,000 were in coastal tourism. Agadir, TangierTetouan, and Casablanca are the main touristic coastal areas. In the Souss-Massa region, coastal tourism—concentrated around Agadir—accounts for 70 percent of that region’s tourism demand.
Climate change poses a major and urgent threat to Morocco’s blue economy. Temperatures have been on the rise, with an observed average increase of 0.2°C per decade since the 1960s (above the global average). The government has acknowledged that coastal ecosystems are among the most vulnerable ecosystems in the country. Climate change impacts such as sealevel rise, coastal flooding, ocean warming, ocean acidification, and changing temperatures and rainfall patterns all affect blue sectors.
Coastal tourism is vulnerable to climate change impacts. Coastal erosion and coastal flooding could damage key tourism infrastructure. As weather conditions are a key resource for coastal tourism, high temperatures could reduce the attractiveness of these destinations. Forest fires and other extreme weather events would also deter tourists. Climate change can also trigger the spread of infectious diseases, a matter of great concern to tourists. However, it remains unclear how these impacts on climate change would affect jobs in the coastal tourism sector in Morocco.
Therefore, an analysis was conducted to examine possible climate change impacts on coastal tourism jobs in in Morocco. This analysis aims to initiate a crucial discussion with the government to strengthen coastal tourism’s climate resilience under the ongoing Blue Economy Program for Results (PforR) framework, which supports the government in building the foundation of the government’s blue economy program. The results of the analysis could be considered by the Interministerial Commission for the Blue Economy1 as it develops the blue economy strategy for the country.
The analysis estimated inbound tourists’ spending structure in Morocco based on the experience of countries in the same climatic zone (for lack of relevant Moroccan data). Climate change impacts were then translated into losses of tourist visits—using tourists’ responses to the risk of wildfires and high temperatures. Losses in tourist spending led to changes in demand in Morocco. Input-output analysis was applied to estimate losses along the value chain of the coastal tourism-related sectors and job losses along the value chain. The share of beds in coastal and other regions has been used to differentiate coastal tourism from other tourism types in Morocco.
The analysis revealed a concerning projection: tourists’ expenditures could decline by 8–18 percent by 2035. This potential decline in spending could have a varying impact on the coastal tourism value chain. Restaurants and hotels would suffer the largest relative losses, followed by services for entertainment and the arts and the transport sector.
Coastal tourism could face a severe blow with a potential loss of up to around 32 percent of jobs. The accommodation and food segment of the coastal tourism sector was estimated to face the highest job losses: in excess of 32 percent under the upper bound of the scenario (see figure below). This alarming prospect is due to the labor-intensive nature of this segment. Small enterprises, often lacking the financial capacity to cope with large shocks, are particularly vulnerable. Previous studies have also indicated that women, youth, and low-income workers are more likely to lose employment when tourism is in a crisis.
