Under the Global Programme on Policy Advice for Climate Resilient Economic Development (CRED) and in cooperation with the Economic Research Institute (ERI, Kazakhstan), we have accomplished a highly interactive week of training sessions on ‘Macroeconomic evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures using the e3.kz model’ in Astana (Kazakhstan) from 11-15 November 2024.

During the training, participants learnt about the E3.kz (Economy, Energy, Emissions in Kazakhstan) model and how to use it for evaluating the economy-wide impacts of water-related climate hazard scenarios as well as climate change adaptation scenarios.

To raise the awareness of what could happen under climate change to key economic sectors and the macroeconomy, data have been collected over the past few months: Earthyield Advisories provided the evolution of droughts, floods, and heatwaves by intensity categories under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in Kazakhstan until 2050. Additionally, national experts have been collecting data on past and current economic impacts from climate hazards in Kazakhstan. By using this data, the results of the e3.kz model show that key economic sectors such as agriculture and energy are at risk affecting food and energy security, increasing import dependency and worsening labor productivity.

Adaptation measures should be taken to prevent the negative impacts from recurring climate hazards and to avoid renewed expenditures on damage control. Various options exist also providing win-win solutions for adaptation and mitigation. Alexandr Belyi (AvantGarde Group, Kazakhstan) has showcased the sectoral costs and benefits for improving energy efficiency in buildings which reduces both the cooling demand during heatwaves and heating demand during winter. This measure is expected to provide multiple benefits for different economic sectors, actors and the macroeconomy, for example by reducing energy costs and CO2 emissions as well as supporting domestic economic activity and creating jobs during rehabilitation of buildings.

Further options for adapting to climate change will be evaluated with e3.kz and the results will be published in the coming months.