After more than a decade of sustained dynamic growth and additional impetus in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, growth in online retail came to a standstill in 2022. While the pandemic brought the industry growth rates of over 40% compared to the same month of the previous year, they turned negative for the first time after 2022. This negative trend continued for two years - until 2024. Current figures now show a clear upward trend again. So are we seeing signs of a comeback for online retail with annual growth rates of 10% as in the 2010s?

Some recent developments speak in favour of this. In particular, the positive growth trend since 2024 goes hand in hand with the rapid market growth of the Chinese low-cost platforms Temu and Shein. In addition to the use of AI and big data analyses to optimise processes, their extremely low prices are also achieved by delivering directly from production sites to consumers - without intermediary wholesalers, retailers and product warehouses. Established online retailers could also rely more heavily on direct marketing in the future and thus achieve strong price advantages over brick-and-mortar retailers and win over consumers through price. As a result, dynamic growth would be possible.

This contrasts with the saturation of online retail, which was also the main reason for the decline in growth after 2022. Consumers shifted their consumption back from online to bricks-and-mortar retail. They appreciate the service and advice, strolling through the city centre and spontaneous purchases. The constant availability of goods in the shops is also a plus point that direct marketing cannot offer. Especially not when, as with Temu and Shein, products are only produced on demand. Delivery times of several weeks or months are the rule. Against this backdrop, it is not unlikely that the current strong growth will not last and that long-term dynamic growth such as that seen in the 2010s can no longer be achieved.

We can only speculate about future developments in online retail in this article, but consumers' consumption preferences are crucial as they weigh up prices, service, quality, product availability, selection and delivery times. However, it is also clear that advancing digitalisation will have an impact on this consideration and that the marketing opportunities for online retailers will continue to improve.

Other figures can be found here.