The development of the German economy continues to be shaped by the successes of the manufacturing industry on export markets. Right now, things are not looking good: the US is responding to its (still) NATO allies with tariffs, threats and domestic political interference. China is also no longer a growth driver for the German export economy due to its mercantilist policy (as much export as possible with as little import as possible) and increased competitiveness. In addition, the euro has appreciated significantly against the dollar: while in January 2026, approximately 1.16 to 1.19 dollars per euro will have to be paid, in January 2025 it was still 1.03 to 1.05 dollars per euro. The appreciation of the euro alone has made German goods 13% more expensive in the dollar zone. To be clear, this has of course also made it cheaper to buy goods on the world markets, which has mitigated inflation.

Let's look at the current figures: The top 10 destinations (see first figure) for German exports imported goods worth €8.6 billion more in the last six months (June to November 2025, latest figures available) than in the same period last year (June to November 2024). Their imports from Germany over the last twelve months are shown in the figure.
 

The figure also shows the NM12 group, which stands for twelve new markets that we consider particularly promising. These include the Mercosur countries, but also countries in Asia and Africa. However, a closer look at this group reveals that its significance for German exports is still low. The markets are ranked as follows, also based on the last twelve months: 21 – India, 22 – Mexico, 23 – Brazil, 30 – Australia, 34 – South Africa, 39 – Singapore, 42 – Malaysia, 55 – Argentina, 56 – Indonesia, 71 – Nigeria, 101 – Uruguay and 107 – Paraguay. 

What has been the dynamic over the last six months? To illustrate this clearly, the USA and China are shown. The European countries among the top 10 destinations are grouped together as Europe, and the new markets are included in the NM12 group. It can be seen (second figure) that Europe is able to compensate for the significant declines in exports to the USA and China. It can also be seen that the new markets are not yet contributing to export growth in Germany, at least for the time being.  
 

What does this tell us? It could have been worse!

1. Despite tariffs, mercantilism, increasing competition and the appreciation of the euro, German exports measured in euros have not collapsed completely.
2. Europe is an anchor for German exports. This means that any strengthening of the EU and our other European partners makes sense.
3. Success in new markets is still a long way off, but together they already contribute more to German exports than China.

The players in Germany therefore have a number of tasks ahead of them to improve the situation: Companies are responsible for their competitiveness in terms of products and processes. Private households could ask themselves what they are buying and perhaps follow the Canadian example of ‘Buy Canadian’ with ‘Buy European + Friends’, and politicians should focus on domestic conditions (energy, bureaucracy, basic research and its transfer to companies, etc.) and trade agreements.

So all is not lost – there is just a lot to do.
 

Other figures can be found here.