Every year on New Year's Eve, millions of households sit in front of the television and watch ‘Dinner for One’. And fish is always on the table. When families and friends turn to dinner after watching TV, there really is fish on the table – at least if you trust the monthly figures from foreign trade statistics. According to these statistics, import volumes increase from August and reach their highest level in October (114% of the average value). However, the foreign trade statistics according to the commodity classification of the Federal Statistical Office – in this case ‘fish, crustaceans and molluscs’ – have even more in store.

Although more fish is imported at the end of the year, it has decreased over the years: while 855 million tonnes of fish were imported in 2014, our forecast for this year is only 611 million tonnes. Is fish becoming less popular? Probably not – it will become more expensive. While we assume that the average price per tonne of fish in 2024 will be just under €7,000 per tonne, it was just over €3,000 per tonne in 2008 (the first time foreign trade statistics were compiled according to commodity classification). So a strong increase in the period mentioned. On average, the price rises by 5.2 % per year. This is due to a reduced supply situation, but demand for changed quality can also have an influence.

There is one piece of good news: According to our estimates, the price in 2024 will be 5.6% lower than in the previous year. Happy New Year then!