The chemical industry is at the heart of socio-ecological transformation: as the largest industrial consumer of mineral oils and natural gas in Germany and thus a significant source of emissions, it faces a particular challenge to undergo fundamental change. Without a profound transformation of this sector, national climate and environmental targets cannot be achieved. In addition to the pressure to transform due to environmental and climate-related regulations and fluctuating energy prices, the chemical industry faces further challenges, such as weak demand in national and global sales markets. Although production has been curtailed in recent years due to weak demand on national and international markets, the industry continues to make a substantial contribution to overall economic value creation.

As part of an ad hoc task in the Federal Environment Agency's project ‘Employment effects of future environmental protection measures’, the situation of the German chemical industry and two cumulative scenarios were examined. The scenarios deal with two key factors influencing the future development of the chemical industry: higher energy costs and the use of new and more efficient technologies. The results of the scenario analysis show that the investments and associated depreciation mean high costs for the chemical industry and are accompanied by a deterioration in operating results.

Mergner, L., Bovenschulte, M., Wolter, M. I. & Peters, R. (2026): Lage und Risiken der chemischen Industrie. GWS Discussion Paper 2026/ 1, Osnabrück.