The global trade model GINFORS – Global INdustry FORecasting System – is updated once a year. At the beginning of each year, an updated projection of global trade is available, which is incorporated into the German model INFORGE – INdustry FORecasting GErmany – and used as a reference development in other projects.

With this year's update, the model has been expanded to include several key components. GINFORS now models bilateral trade between 154 countries for 38 commodity groups, and the commodity group structure has been expanded to include six service sectors for the first time. The data on global trade interdependence is current as of 2023. For 94 of these countries, economic dynamics are estimated in aggregated country models. This now includes 72 countries instead of the previous 65, which, thanks to the integration of OECD input-output tables, also have structural information on 50 economic sectors at country level instead of just 45. Key factors influencing global trade are the United Nations' median population projection, trade links between countries, and changes in prices and trade barriers in the form of customs duties.
 

Mönnig, A. (2026): Die aktuelle Welthandelsprojektion der GWS bis 2050. Stand: Februar 2026. GWS-Kurzmitteilung 5/2026, Osnabrück.