The BMBF funded 3-year project focuses on the phenomenon that, despite the fact that significant progress in efficiency was achieved in the past 40 years, the overall consumption of energy and resources did not proportionately reduce. This might be due to macroeconomic rebound effects. But the consumption levels might have been also caused by other determinants of economic growth. Firstly, the project aims at an understanding of the relation between macroeconomic rebound effects and those other determinants of economic growth. It aims moreover to support the theoretical knowledge by statistical estimation of their significance for the energy and resource consumption (System knowledge). The second goal of the project is to develop political measures and instruments which effectively curtail macroeconomic rebound effects and which influence drivers of economic growth, and to examine their environmental and economic consequences (Orientation knowledge). Thirdly, the project aims at a development of politically feasible and rebound-proof instruments for the reduction of resource consumption in a close collaboration with non-scientific stakeholders within a
Policy Innovation Lab (Transformation knowledge).
Within the EU framework of national energy and climate plans (NECP), there is a current need for projections and impact assessments for the further development of the energy system until 2030 and 2050 respectively.
The basis for this will be provided by scenario work, which will be comprehensively evaluated and its consequences for the energy system as well as socio-economic and ecological consequences evaluated. These scenarios will be supplemented by variants and sensitivity calculations and discussed in an extensive consultation process. The project is carried out by a consortium of FhG ISI, GWS and IINAS led by Prognos AG.
The economic side of the energy system transformation in Germanyis often discussed in a shortened form along the lines of cost burdens and additional expenses. The transformation of the energy system and the exploitation of the potential for increasing energy efficiency, however, open up additional growth opportunities for suppliers of energy technology goods. The opportunities for all companies involved in energy technology goods and services and exporting - or importing - these goods have so far not been intensively examined and described. In this context, plants for electricity and heat generation from renewable energies and for increasing energy efficiency represent technologically sophisticated products that therefore fit well with the supply profile of German industry. The production of these plants is based on complex domestic and international value chains, so that imports and exports of energy technology goods have an influence on the German economy that has so far been insufficiently quantified. For an exporting nation, this knowledge gap is astonishing and the project is intended to close it both definitively and with data.
The main goal is the development of an energy-economy model e3.dz for Algeria and to enable Algerian partners to use the model for the projection and analysis of economic effects from the long-term development of the Algerian energy system under different scenarios. Three scenarios will be defined and implemented in the model 3e.dz regarding renewable energy deployment: business-as-usual, renewables high ambition, and renewables moderate ambition. Two other scenarios will quantify energy efficiency improvement. Training of the national partners includes model application.
The economic opportunities associated with the development of renewable energy are a strong argument to motivate and support RE deployment. GWS has contributed decisively to method development both in Germany and internationally. Algeria aims to increase RE's share of the electricity mix to 27% and its installed capacity to 37% by 2030. Since 2015, 20 solar parks (photovoltaic) with a total installed capacity of 343 megawatts (MW) have been put into operation. In the period from 2016 to 2020, solar or RE power plants with a total capacity of 4,000 MW are to be built. To estimate the employment effect of this development path in Algeria, the following steps are planned:
1. Estimate of jobs to be created under the RE projects in Algeria until 2030 (gross, net, direct, indirect)
2. Estimation of the contribution to the development of the service sector (SMEs, jobs)
3. Identification of RE technologies to be prioritized from the point of view of job creation
Vulnerability to the effects of climate change has been assessed in a cross-sectoral assessment for the first time for Germany in 2015. Regions and systems have been identified that are particularly exposed to climate change, i.e. which are vulnerable. Data of climate research have been mixed with sectoral and socio-economic data. An update is scheduled for 2021. GWS is developing three socio-economic scenarios as in input on behalf of the Federal Environmental Agency. Firstly, scenarios are quantified on national level with the macroeconomic model PANTA RHEI. In a next step the national modelling is transferred to the level of districts (NUTS 3). Finally, land use data and socio-economic parameters are projected until 2035.
The project analyses renewable energy value chains in Lebanon. Based on a literature review and interviews on the ground, the most important technologies for Lebanon will be selected against the background of future viability, value for money and employment potential and a data-driven value added and employment analysis will be carried out for them.
The aim of the energy transition is to transform the energy system into a climate-friendly system and at the same time to phase out nuclear energy while guaranteeing a more secure, economic and environmentally friendly energy supply. The increase of energy efficiency and the expansion of renewable energy are essential components. While clear and measurable indicators with quantified goals and intermediate targets are defined in the energy concept for the fields of efficiency (annual increase in final energy productivity by 2.1 %), renewable energy (increase to 60 % of gross final energy consumption by 2050) and climate protection (40 % GHG reduction by 2020; at least 80 % to 95 % by 2050), this is not the case for the economic dimension. Measuring the macroeconomic effects of the energy transition therefore is much more difficult from a methodological point of view.
Against this background, a consortium consisting of the Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS), German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), German Aerospace Center (DLR), Prognos AG and Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI) has carried out a research project on the macroeconomic and distributional effects of the energy transition on behalf of the BMWi from July 2015 to November 2018. The project is divided into six work packages, summarized at www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/investment-growth-and-jobs.
On the basis of a brief systematization of the effects at the beginning of the project in work package (WP) 1, the concept of national energy accounts has been further developed in WP 2). On the one hand, it covers the macroeconomic costs of energy supply. On the other hand, key parameters such as investment and employment are determined for the comprehensively defined energy sector (so-called gross effects). Reduced energy imports are also assessed.
WP 3 deals with the development of a counterfactual scenario, which describes a world without energy transition for the analysis period 2000 to 2050, and a target scenario in which the goals of the Federal Government are achieved. By comparing the target scenario with the counterfactual world, the net effects of the energy transition are determined both ex post and ex ante in macroeconomic model analyses. In WP 4, the distributional effects of energy policy are further classified by their significance. Issues of personal income distribution and the regional effects of the energy transition are examined in depth. Additional advantages of the energy transition are identified alongside other work steps in WP 5. In WP 6, possible bottlenecks of the energy transition are discussed against the background of the good economic development in Germany.