GINFORS-E

Global macroeconometric simulation and forecasting model for analyzing environmental economic issues

The GINFORS-E (Global INterindustry FORecasting System – Energy) model is a bilateral world trade model that describes the exports and imports of 154 countries and a “Rest of World” region consistently and completely for 25 product groups and services based on OECD data. The macroeconomic drivers are taken from the TINFORGE model. The model explains the energy balances and CO2 data as well as energy price data of the IEA in great detail.

For each country, GINFORS-E contains a macro model from TINFORGE, consisting of exports and imports, the other components of final demand (private and public consumption and investment), the goods markets and the labor market. For 76 countries, the models are also presented according to 45 industries, in line with the latest internationally comparable input-output tables from the OECD.

Each country model is linked to an energy model that determines the conversion, production and final energy demand for 19 energy carriers, final demand being disaggregated by economic sector. Technological trends and price dependencies are taken into account in the model.

GINFORS-E allows for a detailed industry and country coverage, among other things, an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of different energy price developments in individual countries. The trade structures and labor markets, energy intensities and energy source structures are modeled flexibly and price-dependently, taking into account the country-specific situation. The parameters of the model equations are estimated econometrically on the basis of time series data.

In recent years, the model has been further differentiated in the energy sector in order to better capture global technology developments in renewable energies and the effects of carbon prices. The model is also used to determine socio-economic effects of climate change and adaptation measures. This is how the name extension to GINFORS-E came about.