Macroeconomic effects of the Energy Transition

Within the monitoring process “energy of the future” macroeconomic effects of the Energy Transition have been evaluated together with Prognos AG, Basel and the institute of energy economics at the University of Cologne. The results are derived from a quantitative and empirical analysis of a Counter-Factual and Energy Transition scenario. Two phases can be identified. Ex post until 2012, the expansion of renewable energies dominates, especially, with respect to monetary variables, the expansion of photovoltaics. Ex ante from about 2015 onwards, the macroeconomic effects are primarily driven by energy efficiency measures as well as increased electricity prices in the ET scenario. The macroeconomic effects of the energy transition, as defined here, are small.

Großmann, A. & Lutz, C. (2015): Macroeconomic Effects of the Energy Transition. Proceedings, of the 23rd conference of the International Input Output Association in Mexico City (Mexico).
Lutz, C., Großmann, A., Lehr, U., Lindenberger, D., Schlesinger, M., Knaut, A., Malischek, R., Paulus, S., Tode, C., Wagner, J., Kemmler, A., Ley, A., Piégsa, A., Straßburg, S. & Koziel, S. (2014): Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der Energiewende. , Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie, Osnabrück, Köln, Basel.