Socio-economic scenarios as basis for vulnerability analysis for Germany

Vulnerability to the effects of climate change has been assessed in a cross-sectoral assessment for the first time for Germany in 2015. Regions and systems have been identified that are particularly exposed to climate change, i.e. which are vulnerable. Data of climate research have been mixed with sectoral and socio-economic data. An update is scheduled for 2021. GWS is developing three socio-economic scenarios as in input on behalf of the Federal Environmental Agency. Firstly, scenarios are quantified on national level with the macroeconomic model PANTA RHEI. In a next step the national modelling is transferred to the level of districts (NUTS 3). Finally, land use data and socio-economic parameters are projected until 2035.

Jochumsen, K., Bock, A., Klemm, J., Crespi, A., Renner, K., Behmer, J., Walter, A., Leps, N., Wehring, S., Nilson, E., Zebisch, M., Huber, B., Lacombe, S., Dorsch, L., Voß, M., Porst, L., Kahlenborn, W., Linsenmeier, M., Lutz, C., Becker, L., Ulrich, P. & Distelkamp, M. (2021): Klimawirkungs- und Risikoanalyse für Deutschland 2021 – Teilbericht 1: Grundlagen. Climate Change 20/2021, Dessau-Roßlau.