Global Developments

Our research on "Global Developments" is based on Multi-Regional Input-Output analyses (MRIO) and applied econometrics. For ex-ante simulation studies, the global simulation model GINFORS developed by GWS is usually applied.

GINFORS facilitates the analysis of global macroeconomic structural change with a detailed breakdown by country and commodity group. As an integrated dynamic macro-econometric model, GINFORS derives the future development of macroeconomic demand and supply interdependencies from in-depth analyses of historical trade developments and national accounts statistics on a global scale. The model's reaction functions are estimated econometrically, using a post-Keynesian analysis approach.

GINFORS maps the global impacts of multinational economic development scenarios on future resource use and future emission trends in a consistent manner with annual frequency over simulation periods of several decades. Further additional environment-economy modules allow for in-depth analyses of socio-economic transformation scenarios. The dynamic simulation properties of the model ensure that macroeconomic feedback effects induced by alternative policy instruments (e.g. ecological rebound effects triggered by additional investment spending and resulting income effects during transformation processes) can be systematically quantified and evaluated.

As the economic core of the GINFORS model is based on MRIO data structures, the GWS team "Global Developments" has many years of experience in the electronic processing and statistical-econometric analysis of internationally established MRIO databases (such as WIOD, EXIOBASE, FIGARO and GLORIA). With this expertise, the range of services provided by the "Global Developments" team does not focus exclusively on further development, maintenance and application of the GINFORS simulation model: Statistical ex-post evaluations of MRIO data sets (e.g. for the historical assessment of environmental-economic footprint developments) as well as comparative static Input-Output scenario analyses are also distinct elements of the service portfolio offered by our team.