Refugees in Germany - opportunities prevail
Against the background of the massive increase in refugee numbers the consequences of refugee immigration on the economy was already discussed in October 2015 by the Economic and Social affairs team of GWS (GWS Discussion Paper 2015/17). Since then there have been significant changes both in structure and magnitude of refugee migration as well as in terms of refugee policy. With the GWS Discussion Paper 2016/3 an update of the previous analysis has been published. In particular, the migration projection and long-term estimates have been adjusted to the current situation.
As a result, positive economic effects in relation to GDP can be expected. The demand in services and housing will be higher and in the long run an expansion of the production potential is possible. The effect is higher, the better the refugees can be integrated in the labour market. Employment is connected to income and consumption that in turn can lead to even more demand and jobs. However, the growth partly cause a lower net lending/borrowing of the government.