Socio-economic scenarios as a basis for vulnerability analyses for Germany


Sub-report of the project "Policy instruments for climate adaptation" published on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency. The three developed socio-economic scenarios Trend, Stability and Dynamics for Germany represent probable futures until 2045. They take into account global megatrends, the IPCC's international Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Germany-wide projections. The three scenarios were developed at the national level using the economic model PANTA RHEI and then regionalised at the district level using PANTA RHEI Regio in terms of value added, employment, housing, transport, power generation and land development. The results will be used together with climate scenarios to assess the future impacts of climate change in Germany.

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