TINFORGE enhances the capacity of INFORGE (inter-industry forecasting Germany) to deliver information on German international trade. GWS discussion paper 14/1 gives a detailed explanation of the TINFORGE trade module.
TINFORGE models changes in bilateral trade between 80 countries, covering all of the major economies. Around 30 macroeconomic aggregates are used for each national model. These include GDP and its components in ‘real’ and actual prices, the associated price index, population and four key labour market indicators (economically active population, employment, unemployment and wages). The model also incorporates UN demographic projections.
TINFORGE is primarily based on OECD data, complemented where necessary by EUROSTAT, UN and International Monetary Fund (IMF) data. Bilateral trade between the 80 TINFORGE countries is modelled on the basis of the OECD’s bilateral trade matrices. Goods structure is explicitly taken into account with a total of 31 tradable goods categories treated separately.
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